Every populated Texas ZIP code scored for hail and hurricane, with strong wind and inland (river) flooding as smaller inputs, from the FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release) at census-tract resolution, weighted to where each ZIP's residents live, and grouped into four tiers. Hail is the peril most Texas homes share, from Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio to the Panhandle; hurricane is what sets the Gulf Coast, the Golden Triangle, the Coastal Bend and the Rio Grande Valley apart. Section 04 is the recommended treatment for Home leads, section 05 covers Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin, where more than half of your leads come from, and section 06 matches the tiers against the 3,233 GOAL leads delivered from January 1 to October 15, 2026 (2,786 Home and 447 Auto). The full ZIP-by-ZIP list ships as a spreadsheet with this report.
01
Summary
1,923 ZIPs scored · October 15, 2026
396
Extreme-tier ZIPs
11.5% of Texas housing · check appetite
27.3%
Of Texas housing in High + Extreme ZIPs
3,314,387 housing units
537
Home leads from High + Extreme ZIPs
19.3% of 2,782 matched Home leads
19%
Of focus-county housing in High + Extreme
Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin · vs. 27.3% statewide
50%
Of Texans in high-hail tracts
18.7% in high-hurricane tracts
347
Hail-driven High + Extreme ZIPs
281 driven by hurricane, 230 by the combined score, 6 by coastal flooding
02
Statewide risk map
Hail and hurricane tier, all 1,923 ZIPs
Low · 546 ZIPs · 35.9% of housingModerate · 518 ZIPs · 36.8% of housingHigh · 463 ZIPs · 15.8% of housingExtreme · 396 ZIPs · 11.5% of housing
Each point is one ZIP at its geographic center; point size reflects housing units. Hail is highest across Dallas-Fort Worth, West Texas & Panhandle and San Antonio & South Texas, where housing-weighted hail scores average 94.5, 93.9 and 86.7 nationally. Hurricane is highest in Golden Triangle, Rio Grande Valley and Houston & Gulf Coast (93.3, 92.7 and 88.5). In the four coastal regions, 264 of the 358 High and Extreme ZIPs are there because of hurricane; inland, 319 of 501 are there because of hail and 165 more on the combined score, where hail in the mid-90s meets strong wind.
03
Scoring system
Public federal data at census-tract resolution
What goes into the score
- HailNRI hail risk: how often damaging hail falls times the building value exposed, scored 0 to 100 nationally. Half of Texas housing sits in ZIPs scoring above 88.1, so the cut points are set within Texas.
- HurricaneNRI hurricane risk: modeled hurricane wind frequency and strength times the value exposed. Florida and the Carolinas set the top of the national scale, so Texas coastal ZIPs score in the low to mid 90s; the cut points are set for Texas.
- Supporting inputsNRI strong wind and inland flooding risk: added to the composite score at lower weight. Strong wind matters across North and East Texas, where it lifts some mid-90s hail ZIPs into the High tier on the combined score.
- Coastal floodingNRI coastal flooding risk is not in the composite, but a score of 90+ lifts a shoreline ZIP to at least High, so storm-surge ZIPs that FEMA's hurricane wind model scores lower are not left in Low. Tornado is in the spreadsheet only. Flood, coastal or inland, is excluded from a standard home policy and is quoted separately.
- AvailabilityCarrier models (roof age and material, construction, elevation, distance to the coast) are property-level and not published by ZIP. This composite uses public federal data on the same hazards.
Composite weights
NRI hail scorehow often damaging hail falls × value exposed
NRI hurricane scorehurricane wind × value exposed
NRI strong wind scoredamaging non-hurricane wind
NRI inland flooding scoreriver and stream flooding
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025, all 6,883 Texas census tracts. Tract values are weighted into each ZIP by tract population times the share of the tract's land inside the ZIP, using the Census Bureau's 2020 ZIP-to-tract relationship file.
Tier rules
- ExtremeHail score 98+ or hurricane score 94+
- HighHail score 97+, hurricane score 91+, composite score 75+, or coastal flooding score 90+ (a floor for shoreline ZIPs such as Galveston Island)
- ModerateHail score 94+, hurricane score 88+, or composite score 70+
- LowEverything else.
- How Extreme is setExtreme is sized to mark about one Texas home in nine (11.5% of housing). The hail arm (98+) covers 6.4% of Texas housing and the hurricane arm (94+) covers 5.1%. High and Moderate widen each arm, and the composite catches ZIPs where several perils add up.
Reference points
- HoustonHarris 77002 scores 57.6 (Moderate); Harris 77024 scores 61.1 (High); Harris 77084 scores 56.0 (Moderate)
- Galveston BayGalveston 77550 scores 56.6 (High); Galveston 77554 scores 63.1 (High); Galveston 77590 scores 61.7 (Moderate)
- Golden TriangleJefferson 77702 scores 65.9 (Extreme); Orange 77630 scores 64.6 (Extreme); Jefferson 77640 scores 60.5 (High)
- San AntonioBexar 78209 scores 67.7 (Moderate); Bexar 78245 scores 70.0 (Moderate); Bexar 78258 scores 68.6 (Moderate)
- Dallas-Fort WorthDallas 75201 scores 58.8 (Moderate); Collin 75070 scores 61.3 (Extreme); Tarrant 76107 scores 59.3 (Moderate)
- Coast and ValleyNueces 78401 scores 77.9 (Extreme); Kleberg 78418 scores 70.6 (High); Cameron 78520 scores 72.7 (High); Hidalgo 78572 scores 76.8 (High)
- West TexasPotter 79107 scores 50.2 (Extreme); Lubbock 79424 scores 64.1 (Moderate); El Paso 79912 scores 55.3 (Low)
04
Home leads: recommended treatment
Extreme tier gets an appetite check · High tier gets a roof, wind and deductible review
Check appetite · Extreme · 396 ZIPs · 11.5% of TX housing
Roof, wind and deductible review · High · 463 ZIPs · 15.8%
No change · 1064 ZIPs · 72.7%
Excluding every Extreme ZIP would remove 11.5% of Texas housing from Home; adding the High tier would bring it to 27.3%. We do not recommend a blanket exclusion. We recommend excluding only the ZIPs where new home business cannot be written today, and treating the rest of the Extreme and High tiers as a conversation: roof age and material, how the wind and hail deductible works, and windstorm and flood questions near the coast.
Home treatment by tier
- ExtremeCheck appetite. Confirm new home business is open in the ZIP before the first call. In hail ZIPs, ask the roof's age and material and whether it is impact-resistant, and explain the wind and hail deductible. In coastal hurricane ZIPs, ask how wind is written today, whether the home has storm shutters or roof tie-downs, and offer a flood quote.
- HighRoof, wind and deductible review. Ask the year the roof was replaced and whether it is impact-resistant, and walk through the wind and hail deductible, often a percentage of the dwelling amount, before the first storm season.
- ModerateNo change. Standard quote; roof age is still worth asking anywhere hail is common.
- LowNo change. Standard quote.
Two kinds of Extreme ZIP
- Hail242 ZIPs reach Extreme on hail (score 98+), holding 781,554 housing units: West Texas & Panhandle 177, Dallas-Fort Worth 35, San Antonio & South Texas 19, East Texas 8, Austin & Central Texas 3.
- Hurricane157 ZIPs reach Extreme on hurricane (score 94+), holding 612,888 housing units: San Antonio & South Texas 61, Houston & Gulf Coast 52, Rio Grande Valley 27, Golden Triangle 12, East Texas 5.
- Both3 ZIPs meet both rules.
Largest Extreme-tier ZIPs by housing units
| ZIP | County | Score 0–100 | Hail score | Hurricane score | Residents in high-hurricane tracts | Housing units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75035 | Collin County | 63.5 | 98.1 | 36.5 | 0% | 29,607 |
| 78542 | Hidalgo County | 80.3 | 86.9 | 94.3 | 95% | 26,187 |
| 75070 | Collin County | 61.3 | 98.0 | 34.5 | 0% | 25,707 |
| 75071 | Collin County | 65.0 | 98.9 | 37.3 | 0% | 25,276 |
| 77493 | Harris County | 72.0 | 48.4 | 94.3 | 98% | 23,977 |
| 78550 | Cameron County | 75.8 | 77.0 | 94.3 | 97% | 22,468 |
| 75093 | Collin County | 61.9 | 98.3 | 35.6 | 0% | 21,069 |
| 78414 | Nueces County | 73.5 | 63.9 | 94.0 | 94% | 20,680 |
| 75013 | Collin County | 66.5 | 99.1 | 37.8 | 0% | 19,336 |
| 76131 | Tarrant County | 65.8 | 98.9 | 39.3 | 0% | 19,030 |
The complete 396-ZIP list is in the spreadsheet, treatment column = Check appetite. Many hail-driven Extreme ZIPs are small towns in West Texas and the Panhandle, which is why the tier holds many ZIPs but only 11.5% of housing.
05
Dallas-Fort Worth and Austin
More than half of your leads · Tarrant, Dallas, Collin and Denton counties · Williamson and Travis counties
Dallas-Fort Worth
The four core counties hold 203 ZIPs: 32 Extreme, 28 High, 113 Moderate and 30 Low. Dallas-Fort Worth's risk is hail: half of the four counties' housing sits in ZIPs scoring 95.8 or more for hail, while hurricane scores sit near 35.0. All 60 of their High and Extreme ZIPs reach that tier on hail. Collin County is the most exposed, with 84.3% of its housing in High or Extreme ZIPs, against 6.9% in Dallas County.
Austin: Williamson and Travis
Williamson and Travis hold 66 ZIPs: 1 Extreme, 1 High, 9 Moderate and 55 Low. Hail runs lower than in Dallas-Fort Worth: half of the two counties' housing sits in ZIPs scoring 87.3 or more for hail, and hurricane scores sit near 46.7. Only two ZIPs reach High or Extreme: 76578 (Williamson County, Extreme on hail) and 78712 (Travis County, High on the combined score), so 0.1% of the two counties' housing is in High or Extreme ZIPs, against 25.5% in the four Dallas-Fort Worth counties.
LowModerateHighExtreme
Your top lead ZIPs in the six counties
| ZIP | County | Tier | Hail score | Score 0–100 | Households | Med. income | Own rate | Prime target | Home leads | Auto leads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78633 | Williamson | Low | 92.0 | 64.5 | 14,245 | $100,936 | 91.7% | Yes | 38 | 4 |
| 78641 | Travis | Low | 84.9 | 57.2 | 35,410 | $135,024 | 77.2% | Yes | 37 | 4 |
| 75056 | Denton | Low | 93.0 | 56.8 | 28,020 | $119,682 | 59.4% | 36 | 3 | |
| 78664 | Williamson | Low | 86.2 | 58.3 | 23,484 | $87,417 | 53.7% | 30 | 7 | |
| 75052 | Dallas | Moderate | 94.9 | 58.8 | 32,672 | $89,301 | 64.6% | 36 | 0 | |
| 76179 | Tarrant | High | 97.1 | 59.3 | 26,504 | $107,428 | 79.1% | Yes | 32 | 1 |
| 75044 | Dallas | Moderate | 95.9 | 62.2 | 16,952 | $92,178 | 58.9% | 31 | 1 | |
| 75062 | Dallas | Low | 93.7 | 55.9 | 17,564 | $72,704 | 45.4% | 30 | 1 | |
| 75035 | Collin | Extreme | 98.1 | 63.5 | 28,872 | $166,590 | 76.7% | 28 | 0 | |
| 75002 | Collin | High | 97.8 | 61.6 | 23,656 | $137,037 | 78.4% | Yes | 27 | 0 |
| 75067 | Denton | Low | 91.2 | 55.8 | 27,473 | $78,752 | 39.8% | 25 | 2 | |
| 76123 | Tarrant | Moderate | 95.9 | 60.0 | 13,857 | $102,768 | 76.7% | Yes | 25 | 2 |
| 75071 | Collin | Extreme | 98.9 | 65.0 | 24,208 | $132,447 | 74.3% | 26 | 0 | |
| 76017 | Tarrant | Moderate | 96.6 | 62.6 | 16,382 | $90,083 | 65.8% | 26 | 0 |
The 14 ZIPs in the six counties with the most GOAL leads. Prime target means income $100k+, ownership 60%+, a tier below Extreme and 3,000+ households (see the demographic report); 5 of these 14 ZIPs qualify, and 4 sit in the High or Extreme tier, all in Dallas-Fort Worth, where the roof, wind and deductible conversation applies; the Austin ZIPs on this list are all Low.
County exposure · share of housing in Extreme and in High + Extreme ZIPs
| County | Housing units | Extreme | High + Extreme | Your Home leads | Your Auto leads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrant | 806,712 | 9.3% | 21.5% | 379 | 36 |
| Dallas | 1,091,735 | 1.5% | 6.9% | 297 | 35 |
| Collin | 457,477 | 47.7% | 84.3% | 262 | 11 |
| Denton | 351,266 | 6.7% | 16.2% | 179 | 17 |
| Williamson | 231,922 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 222 | 25 |
| Travis | 645,323 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 258 | 39 |
| Rockwall | 46,465 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 63 | 3 |
| Kaufman | 56,561 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 41 | 3 |
| Ellis | 78,459 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 28 | 5 |
| Johnson | 77,158 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8 | 4 |
| Parker | 68,295 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9 | 1 |
| Hays | 110,833 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 52 | 8 |
| Bastrop | 40,663 | 0.0% | 1.6% | 27 | 6 |
| Bell | 152,883 | 0.0% | 2.1% | 90 | 15 |
| Bexar | 826,240 | 7.1% | 14.4% | 156 | 55 |
The four Dallas-Fort Worth counties and Williamson and Travis first, then their neighbors, then Bexar County (San Antonio), your largest lead county outside the six. The six counties supplied 1,597 Home and 163 Auto leads, 377 and 25 of them from High or Extreme ZIPs, nearly all in Dallas-Fort Worth (376 and 25). Bexar County supplied 156 Home and 55 Auto, 26 and 7 from High or Extreme ZIPs, and its risk is also hail.
06
Your leads by tier
2,782 Home and 446 Auto GOAL leads matched to a Texas ZIP · Jan 1 to Oct 15, 2026
Low · 1,235 Home leadsModerate · 1,010 Home leadsHigh · 256 Home leadsExtreme · 281 Home leads
Each point is a ZIP that produced at least one Home lead; point size reflects the number of leads.
High and Extreme ZIPs that produced leads
| ZIP | County | Tier | Home | Auto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76179 | Tarrant County | High | 32 | 1 |
| 75035 | Collin County | Extreme | 28 | 0 |
| 75002 | Collin County | High | 27 | 0 |
| 75071 | Collin County | Extreme | 26 | 0 |
| 75098 | Collin County | High | 25 | 1 |
| 75023 | Collin County | High | 24 | 0 |
| 76248 | Tarrant County | Extreme | 20 | 1 |
| 75019 | Dallas County | High | 19 | 0 |
| 75070 | Collin County | Extreme | 18 | 1 |
| 76262 | Denton County | Extreme | 17 | 2 |
| 75093 | Collin County | Extreme | 17 | 0 |
| 75078 | Collin County | Extreme | 16 | 1 |
| 75182 | Dallas County | High | 16 | 0 |
| 75013 | Collin County | Extreme | 15 | 0 |
Top 14 of 138 High and Extreme ZIPs with at least one lead, by Home leads.
Home leads by tier
Extreme396 ZIPs · 11.5% of housing
High463 ZIPs · 15.8% of housing
Moderate518 ZIPs · 36.8% of housing
Low546 ZIPs · 35.9% of housing
537 Home leads (19.3%) and 83 Auto leads (18.6%) came from High or Extreme ZIPs, which hold 27.3% of Texas housing. Extreme ZIPs alone supplied 281 Home leads (10.1%) against 11.5% of housing, so this year an appetite-based exclusion list would have cost Home volume roughly in proportion to the housing it removes.
07
Hail and hurricane in the conversation
Questions that make a Texas home quote faster and stickier
Why it matters here
- Roofs40% of housing in Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio & South Texas, Austin & Central Texas and West Texas sits in ZIPs scoring 95+ for hail nationally. Roof age, material and whether the roof is impact-resistant belong in the first conversation, not the renewal.
- DeductiblesWind and hail deductibles are often a percentage of the dwelling amount. Explaining the dollar figure on the first call avoids a surprise after the first storm and builds trust.
- Hurricane54% of housing in the four coastal regions sits in ZIPs scoring 88+ for hurricane. Near the coast, ask how wind is written today, about shutters and roof tie-downs, and the age of the roof covering.
- Flooding24.4% of Texans live in tracts FEMA rates high for inland flooding and 0.4% for coastal flooding. Flood is excluded from a standard home policy, so a flood quote is a natural follow-up in Houston and along the coast.
- AutoHail and flood damage to a car is paid under comprehensive coverage. On every Auto quote in a High or Extreme ZIP, confirm comprehensive is included; it is also the natural opening to quote the home.
Largest High and Extreme ZIPs by households
| ZIP | County | Driver | Hail | Hurricane | Households | Med. income | Home leads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77494 | Fort Bend County | Hurricane | 50.3 | 91.2 | 42,924 | $148,720 | 0 |
| 77433 | Harris County | Hurricane | 38.8 | 93.1 | 34,982 | $143,934 | 0 |
| 77429 | Harris County | Hurricane | 32.8 | 91.3 | 32,881 | $119,191 | 0 |
| 75035 | Collin County | Hail | 98.1 | 36.5 | 28,872 | $166,590 | 28 |
| 77459 | Fort Bend County | Hurricane | 47.3 | 91.1 | 28,506 | $129,151 | 0 |
| 78521 | Cameron County | Hurricane | 68.0 | 93.9 | 27,731 | $44,509 | 0 |
| 78572 | Hidalgo County | Hurricane | 84.8 | 93.1 | 26,723 | $54,298 | 0 |
| 76179 | Tarrant County | Hail | 97.1 | 35.6 | 26,504 | $107,428 | 32 |
| 77375 | Harris County | Hurricane | 34.6 | 91.9 | 24,681 | $102,488 | 0 |
| 75070 | Collin County | Hail | 98.0 | 34.5 | 24,463 | $112,352 | 18 |
08
Data & files
- Risk sourceFEMA National Risk Index, census tract table, December 2025 release (hail, hurricane, strong wind, inland flooding, coastal flooding, tornado), all 6,883 Texas tracts. The December 2025 release reports river flooding as inland flooding.
- GeographyU.S. Census Bureau 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas and the 2020 ZCTA-to-tract relationship file. The file reports land-area overlaps, not population, so each tract's values are weighted into a ZIP by the tract's population times the share of its land inside the ZIP. Tract parts outside Texas are not scored. Housing counts from ACS 2020–2024.
- LeadsAll 3,233 GOAL leads for this account, Jan 1 to Oct 15, 2026 (2,786 Home, 447 Auto), counted by ZIP. 2,782 of 2,786 Home leads and 446 of 447 Auto leads matched a populated Texas ZIP. 4 Home and 1 Auto leads came from PO-box or non-residential ZIPs (75710, 76385, 78646, 79712) with no Census profile.
- LimitsA ZIP score describes the ZIP, not a house. Roof age and material, construction, elevation and distance to the water decide each quote; the tiers decide where to ask first.
- FilesJamison-TX-ZIP-Data-10-15-26.csv · every ZIP, every score, tier and treatment column, plus the demographics used in the companion report.